Wickrama PSSL*, Koralagama DN and Sandika AL
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of
Agriculture, University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka
Abstract
Dried fish plays an important role in the
national economy in multiple ways including minimizing
post-harvest losses of fish providing a source of animal
protein, enlarging livelihoods, utilizing idling labor into
the production process and as a dish, especially for rural
poor. Dried fish prices have increased drastically from 2012
to 2019 compared to fish and chicken. Being the key
determinant of demand, price is crucial on consumption,
dried fish demand and industry performance: increasing
prices, decrease the demand, which adversely effects on
dried fish industry from 2012 pushing dried fish consumption
to third place. Therefore, this study aims to assess the
price behavior of selected dried fish varieties and
appropriate price forecasting models that could be feed into
policy formulation for reasonable prices and price variation
during the year. A quantitative approach was adopted
gathering national average price data from secondary sources
such as Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian and Research Institute,
Department of Census and Statistics and other relevant
institute. Three dried fish varieties which are highly
consumed by the populace were selected representing large
pelagic-skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) and
double-spotted queenfish (Scomberoides lysan) and small
pelagic- gold-striped sardinella (Sardinella gibbosa).
Average monthly retail price data from January 2007 to
December 2019 were considered to analysis. Seasonal price
variation and price indices were calculated for the three
varieties in terms of real market prices. Analysis revealed
highest dried fish prices in June and July months,
corresponding with south-west monsoon. In contrast, lower
prices have been reported during the north-east monsoon for
large pelagic, months of January and February. Gold-striped
sardinella indicated the highest price index in middle month
of the both monsoon seasons. Highest seasonal price indexes
for large pelagic varieties are indicated during
May-September following the south -west monsoon. The Real
Market Price (RMP) of all three dried fish varieties
demonstrated a fluctuating pattern with a slight increment
throughout the year. The same fluctuating patterns are
observed in relation to moving average price, seasonality
impact removed price and seasonality around moving average
price of each three varieties separately. However, prices of
three varieties are strongly correlated (r=0.941<, p=0.00)
with each other. The cubic price forecasting model is the
best fit model of price forecasting for all the analyzed
varieties. Besides, the Quadratic model can be used to
predict the price of analyzed large pelagic varieties. The
ARIMA analysis revealed that ARIMA (2,1,12) is the best fit
model for price forecasting of skipjack tuna while ARIMA
(0,1,0) for double spotted queen and gold stripped
sardinella forecasting. Having a distinct seasonality impact
on dried fish prices, the policies need to be focused on
price stabilizing mechanisms to assure a certain and stable
performances in the dried fish industry in Sri Lanka
ensuring affordability to the majority in Sri Lanka.
Keywords:
Dried fish, Real market price, Price index, Price
forecasting models, Seasonality Full Text :
pdf (703kb)
* - Corresponding Author
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